Let us make a prediction. If Han Kuo-yu who is a candidate running for the president of Taiwan in 2020 win the election, Will he make Taiwan return to Communist China?
It is not impossible for Han to run for the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election.
Han has become popular during the mayor’s election for Kaohsiung City and continued raising up after it.
When 2020 Taiwanese presidential election is coming, Han’s popularity for running the election is rising within his party Kuomintang, and the Kuomintang Party is much like to pick Han as its party’s primary candidate for 2020 election.
If Han is elected as the presidential candidate of the Kuomintang, can he win the presidency and become the president of Taiwan?
This article does not discuss whether he can win. We only assume that he is elected as the president of Taiwan.
If Han is elected as president of Taiwan, will he make Taiwan return to China? It depends on the ruling philosophy and political demands of the Han and his party Kuomintang.
Therefore, We can judge Han’s behaviour from his policy preference.
On April 11th, Han made a speech at Harvard University in the United States and we can take a look at his political position.
For any politician and ruler in Taiwan, three main topics cannot be avoided.
We will put those topics to test Han.
First, is the “1992 Consensus”
“1992 Consensus” is the most fundamental difference between the two major Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan. Speaking from the perspective of their expressions, people with common sense and logic will not think that this is a “consensus”. It is just an expression for their own words, but it forces Taiwan to recognise the “one China principle” that is recognising that both China and Taiwan belong to one China, which is the People’s Republic of China.
If Taiwan legally recognises this consensus, this is the legislation. If Taiwan does anything in the name of the “Republic of China”, Mainland China has the right to impose sanctions on Taiwan following the law. In particular, it can be based on China’s “Anti-Secession Law”.
The law is not only for the “Taiwan independence supporters” of the DPP. But also practice for those who recognise the 1992 Consensus because you are acknowledging.
The official of the mainland has never said that the 1992 Consensus can be “one China”, Both sides China and Taiwan expressing their own words.
Do these elites political in Kuomintang Party know this? Of course, they do!
Han said in his speech at Harvard: “Although some people say that Beijing does not recognise ‘one China’s respective expressions, but I want to point out that in the eight years of the Kuomintang’s administration, Beijing did not refuse and respect the Kuomintang’s position in 1992 Consensus. We interacted. We signed several agreements during these eight years of administration, participated in many international activities, and more countries gave us visa-free treatment.”
Han said: “We have participated in many international activities, and more countries have granted us visa-free treatment.” Han described these agreements as recognition of the 1992 Consensus by Kuomintang. However, this is not true. The fact is that the visa-free treatment for the mainland is much less than what Taiwan has, and more countries give visa-free access to Taiwan than Mainland China. If China can influence other countries to grant Taiwan visa-free, why China does not fight it for themselves?
Please pay attention to “communicating with each other” and “signing a lot of agreements”. If it refers to the agreement signed between the mainland and Taiwan, how is it signed? It was signed by the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and the Straits Exchange Foundation! They are a civil society organization. The mainland will never sign an agreement with the Taiwan government agency because the mainland never recognises the Taiwan government. Beijing has never allowed the principle that “one China, one Taiwan” and “one China, two governments”.
Han firmly said: “I advocate the 1992 consensus, and the people have not opposite my claims.” “I think the 1992 Consensus is practical.”
He avoided a key issue. Beijing does not allow “express own words.” Under this circumstance, does he still insist on accepting the “1992 Consensus”? If he still insists on accepting the “92 Consensus”, does he not recognize that the Taiwanese government is illegal?
Doesn’t Beijing know that this is not a consensus? Of course, they know! I just drew a circle to let Taiwanese politicians jump in and let the Taiwanese entertain themselves, thinking that he could express one China on his own.
Second, the relationship between Taiwan and the United States
When talking about Taiwan-US relations, Han said: “The United States is undoubtedly one of the most important friends of the Republic of China. It has always been our ally in economic, security, military and political aspects. We have The Defense Treaty and the Taiwan Relations Act, and they build the power of Taiwan’s defence. Not only that, but the United States is also an important trading partner. Over the years, we have worked together to give Taiwan a peaceful and secure environment for our economy and democracy developed.”
Everyone knows that in Taiwan-US relations, the most crucial thing is military relations. Without the protection of the United States, Taiwan’s “Republic of China” cannot exist within a minute. Beijing has never given up its military force to liberate Taiwan. With the vigorous improvement of China’s military power, the call for liberation of Taiwan by has become more and higher, and the patience of peaceful solution has almost disappeared. The think tanks in Beijing have publicly stated that the liberation of Taiwan by force is “easy”. There is no harm in Bailey. It is expected that the liberation of Taiwanese casualties and the consumption of weapons and ammunition will be like a large-scale practical exercise. The method of war is straightforward. Taiwan will surrender as long as the Chinese military surrounds Taiwan for 24 hours. Someone asked if the Americans would interfere? The answer is that the Americans would be scared away and the Americans are afraid of death.
Everyone knows that America’s interference in China’s military action against Taiwan is the key to Beijing’s decision to attack Taiwan by force. If the United States says that it will not interfere in China’s military action against Taiwan, Taiwan will immediately become chaos.
Han has an exciting story. He said: “However, we cannot and should not implicate our US allies. We cannot implicate our American friends into the water because we cannot properly handle cross-strait relations. We are friendly to our American allies. Goodwill is one thing, but taking American friendship as a matter is another story. We must take responsibility in the international situation and cross-strait relations so that the people of Taiwan can continue to live in democracy and prosperity.”
It is a unique expression in the Chinese language. People who do not want the U.S. to intervene in the issue between Taiwan and Mainland China but they use beautiful words to express it.
Taiwan’s “unification” forces have repeatedly said that the United States is using Taiwan for its benefit. The United States regards Taiwan as a pawn and playing the game with China and Taiwan. It is not for the benefit of Taiwan at all.
Therefore, if you voluntarily give up the protection of the United States, it is ready to return to the mainland.
Third, the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland
Han’s views to Taiwan and China is following:
“For any political leader in Taiwan, the fundamental goal is to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and ensure that Taiwan is not left behind the international world.”
“We are all aware that Taiwan’s only military threat comes from Beijing. As I have repeatedly said, we do not have to doubt Taiwanese determination to pursue democracy, but at the same time, we do not have to doubt Beijing’s determination to pursue reunification. Although, strengthening our defence. Capability is important, but we cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that Beijing has a strong military force. What we have to do is to work peacefully with China and use wisdom to avoid potential conflicts. This is what Taiwanese people need. We need to face the rise of China and the avoidance of unnecessary confrontation.”
“We must take responsibility in the international situation and cross-strait relations so that the people of Taiwan can continue to live in democracy and prosperity.”
The words above Han had expressed three meanings:
- As the leader of Taiwan, his responsibility is to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and enable Taiwanese to continue to live in democracy and prosperity.
- However, there is a confrontation and conflict. On the one hand, the Taiwanese people have the determination to pursue democracy, and on the other hand, the only military threat comes from Beijing.
- In this confrontation and conflict, Han once again warned the people of Taiwan that “there is no doubt that Beijing is determined to pursue reunification” and “can’t turn a blind eye to Beijing’s strong military power.” “We need to face the rise of China.” Avoid with wisdom Unnecessary confrontation.
So what is his wisdom? He said that is his advocation of 1992 consensus.
However, Han did not say or did not see the most fundamental issue in the relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China.
Taiwan and the mainland are not equal in a political role. An example of the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland are used to illustrate that the mainland has only agreed to negotiations between the party and the party on major issues concerning Taiwan, and has not agreed to negotiate with the president of the Chinese government. If the Beijing side holds talks with the current regime in Taiwan, does it not recognize the Taiwanese government? Do you not violate “the one China, two governments”? Until Ma Ying-jeou stepped down, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou met informally abroad. This cannot be regarded as Beijing giving up this principle.
If Taiwan returns to the mainland one day, the Chinese government’s governance of Taiwan will be very different from that of Hong Kong and Macao. Because Hong Kong and Macao are foreign colonies, the United Kingdom and Portugal signed the “guarantee of one country, two systems” agreement when returning to Hong Kong and Macao. Although Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently stated that those agreements are not binding, they are bound by international public opinion.
With the return of Taiwan, the Chinese government has learned the lessons of Hong Kong and will be more strictly to controlled. At that time, a large number of cadres will be sent in, and the military and military facilities will significantly change Taiwan. Now in the national media, members of the think tanks and experts can’t wait to publish the governance model for China controlled-Taiwan. Some experts suggest that about 23 million pro-China citizens who are from the mainland should be selected and immigrated to Taiwan to control the government from low to top level.
By that time, not only Taiwan, but the entire Asia-Pacific landscape will have tremendous changes. Its influence will spread to a wide range of regions around the world.